Australia facing an uphill struggle

Four years ago the Socceroos surprised the world, and perhaps their own fans in particular, by emerging from the World Cup group stages coming agonisingly close to knocking out eventual champions Italy in the second round. That success, combined with a straightforward run through qualification has lifted expectations to a much higher level in 2010. But can the Australians really match, or even surpass, the achievements of their last World Cup campaign?

It is a remarkably similar squad to the one in Germany. Once again the Socceroos will look to Mark Schwartzer and Lucas Neil for stability at the back, Vince Grella and Marco Bresciano to pull the strings in midfield, Tim Cahill for crucial goals and Harry Kewell to provide something extra. In a further parallel to 2006, Kewell once again comes into the tournament under an injury cloud. To their advantage is the fact that this squad is more experienced and has played under the same coach for the entire campaign, learning his system and their places in it. Australia may still consider themselves underdogs in the football world, but they will have by far the most experienced side in Group D, all the more so now that Germany and Ghana will both miss their captains and most experienced players. Counting against them is the fact that they are four years older, and in fact every single one of the Socceroos main players is past the age of thirty.

Also counting against Australia on this occasion is coach Pim Verbeek's apparent tactical inflexibility. The Australians qualified (as first country in the world) largely thanks to a succession of clean sheets, which delivered important (if somewhat dour) draws away from home and set the basis for counter attacking wins at home. That Verbeek is heading to South Africa with a squad that contains only three strikers, two of which are under injury clouds, suggests he has no intention of changing that approach at the business end of the campaign. Defending well is crucial to a successful tournament, and counter attacking football is used to great effect by club and national teams around the world, but the Australians have not demonstrated that they have a plan B. This could have serious repercussions if the Australians find themselves a goal down and needing a win in the second or third group match.

Finally, an added hurdle will be that the Australians will lose the physical advantage that they enjoyed against their opponents in qualifying. In the premier league Lucas Neil's ability in the air is sometimes questioned. At 183cm, he is not the tallest of central defenders. This may go largely unnoticed in Asia, but players like Mario Gomez and Miroslav Klose will seek to exploit it. Nobody ever questions Tim Cahill's ability in the air, but he will have a hard time jumping over Per Mertesacker (198cm) or Manchester United's Serbian defender Nemanja Vidic. Similarly, against these defences, it will not be enough to throw on Joshua Kennedy and hope his height frightens the opposition.

It is not an easy group. A lot of attention has focused on the game against Germany, but every unseeded team has to face one of the world's major football powers - with the exception of the three lucky enough to be drawn in host nation South Africa's group. If it wasn't Germany, it would have been Brazil. Argentina, Spain or another very accomplished side. The fate of the unseeded nations is more often determined in the two games against their fellow underdogs.

Nevertheless, a point against Germany would be extremely valuable for Australia. The absence of captain Michael Ballack from the Germany side brings the prospect of a draw against the Nationalmannshaft from the fanciful to the distinctly possible. That is not because of the quality the Ballack brings as a player. If the Germans play to their potential, Australia will lose, simple as that. What brings Australia into contention is that the Germans are a young side, with limited international experience, who will sorely miss the leadership and professionalism that Ballack, with 98 international caps, brought to the side. It is akin to the current Australian cricket side losing Ricky Ponting before the ashes. Without their captain, the Germans are far more likely to underestimate the Australians or have jitters of their own, and let the Australians sneak away with a draw.

It seems that there is some good fortune on Australia's side, because their next opponents are also missing their captain, an equally important midfield Michael from Chelsea. Unlike Germany, Ghana do not have the depth to compensate for the loss of a player of Essien's quality. At his best, Essien is unstoppable. The World Cup will miss him, but his absence opens the door for Australia. Their second game, this is the one Australia can, and must win.

In a final parallel to 2006, Australia will face a tough side from Eastern Europe in the final group match. A good result against Ghana would be enough to ensure the Australians are still alive in this game, but they will face another stern test. The Serbians side has some serious talent. Fresh from helping Inter Milan win the Champions League, Dejan Stankovic will dominate the centre of the park. Branislav Ivanovic (Chelsea) and Nemanja Vidic (Manchester United) will make it very tough indeed for Australia to score. They also both offer a threat at set pieces. In Radomir Antic, the Serbs also have a highly experienced and effective coach - the only man to coach Real Madrid and both its fierce rivals, Atletico Madrid and Barcelona. Serbia will be a tough side to beat, as they showed by topping their qualification group, which included 2006 finalists France. They did lose a warm up match against New Zealand, but warm up matches rarely mean much once the tournament starts.

If they do emerge from the group stage, Australia are almost certain to face England in the second round. Ironically, England is probably the only top side that would not welcome a second round match up against Australia. England would start as the clear favourites, but the rest of the football world will have little understanding of a rivalry that comes from cricket and rugby. The English football side is not known for its mental strength, and has underperformed at every world cup in recent memory. A match against Australia will only add to the pressure already created by a fervent tabloid media. Australia on the other hand, with nothing to lose, may lift for the occasion. Last time the two met, it was a friendly, but Australia won what was for them a famous victory. On that night a younger Harry Kewell, once again coming into the game under an injury cloud, left Rio Ferdinand looking distinctly average as he danced around the English defense and David James to score. A 2010 repeat is at least theoretically possibly, with all the same actors likely to be involved. On the other hand, in recent years England have shed their tendency to lose to Australia at everything, picking up the Ashes, bragging rights at the 2008 Olympics and recently the T20 World Cup.

Overall, Australia face a tougher challenge than in 2006. Time will tell whether they have become a better side, or merely an older one, since then.