The fairytales and big games to come

For an amateur blogger, this World Cup business moves much to fast. My last post was only days ago, but much has happened since then that deserves comment.

The group stages have wrapped up, with some upsets in major countries going out, and some minnows beginning to put up their hands for the fairytale of 2010 title.

For some, especially those south of the equator, the fairytale title has already been won by New Zealand. New Zealand came in to this game as the most unknown side, other than perhaps North Korea, in the tournament. There were reports that some of their opponents were struggling to find video footage of the New Zealand players, because a number of them play in leagues that are not regularly broadcast on television. In the era of mega rich professionals the term amateur is often used as a slur, but for New Zealand, which actually did field some amateur players, it was a badge of honour.

The match between Italy and New Zealand was, on paper, the biggest mismatch the World Cup has seen for a long time. Italy were the World Champions, while New Zealand had players who needed day jobs. A fourth or fifth division side in Italy would expect to beat such a team. Yet New Zealand held on, not just against Italy but against the other sides in the group too. They should be particularly proud of the fact that, while Italy certainly weren't at their best, they weren't terrible either. It was a good New Zealand performance, rather than a poor one from Italy, that earned this result. In the end they didn't lose a single game.

Not only that, but it is worth a quick thought about what might have been. Against Slovakia, New Zealand conceded a goal that was offside, while against Italy it was a contentious penalty decision. If not for those two moments, the Kiwi defense would not have conceded yet, and they would be readying for a second round knock out game. A fantastic achievement.

Apart from that, the big story of the group stages is the struggle of the European teams. Italy and France are out, England, Germany and Spain had to win on the last day to get through. This has shades of the 2002 tournament which was held in Japan and Korea, where all the major European powers bar Germany fell at the quarter finals or earlier - and this is no coincidence. No European side has won a World Cup outside of Europe, and the fact is that European sides have benefited immensely from the home ground advantage of having most world cups played in Europe.

The second round matches provide some huge match ups, and some less impressive ones. Fans of good football will be heading straight to the Spain v Portugal game. Spain will go in as favourites, and in my opinion they remain the firm favourites for the tournament, especially now that they have avoided a second round clash with Brazil. Portugal still depend too much on Cristiano Ronaldo - he couldn't force a win for Real Madrid (or Manchester United) over Barcelona, and he'll be facing much the same opposition against Spain, in Pique, Puyol, Xavi and Iniesta.

Ghana will be staking their claim to knock New Zealand off the fairytale pedestal. As the only African nation left in Africa's cup, they are carrying the hopes of a continent - and the draw has opened up nicely for them. It is already a certainty that this World Cup will have an unlikely semi-finalist. One of Ghana, USA, Korea and Uruguay will be in the semi-final. A much more inviting quarter of the draw than the one that contains Germany, England, Argentina and Mexico. No African side has made the semi final, and to be honest, Ghana still look like outsiders. While the qualified from a tough group, they still haven't scored from open play. Nevertheless, they will have huge support, as the South African fans have shown they will throw their support behind any African side. They are young, fit and not without skills. It would certainly make for a memorable world cup if Ghana do make a run.

Those with a penchant for games with history will of course turn to England v Germany. To sum up the history, in 1966 England won the final against Germany, courtesy of a goal which remains contentious for the doubt as to whether the ball ever crossed the line. In 1970, Germany got some revenge by knocking England out. In 1990 they met in the semi-final. While Paul Gascoine cried, the Germans held their nerve to win on penalties and go on to lift the trophy. In 1996 the two met in England in the semi-final of the European championship. England had been alive with dreams of 'Football coming home' the theme song of the tournament, but again Germany triumphed, also on penalties. Since then England have recorded a famous win, thrashing a very poor German side 5-1 in a qualifying game in Munich in 2001 - ultimately though both sides qualified for the subsequent World Cup, where England fell in the quarter finals and Germany finished as runners up.

England will be kicking themselves, and Germany will be eager to kick them too, for even letting it come to this. If England had done what was expected of them and won their group, they would be facing Ghana, and then need to beat either Uruguay or Korea to get to the semi-final, a stage they have only reached twice in their history. Instead, they now have to beat first Germany and then, probably, Argentina, to get there.

It is a shame that such a big game is being played so early in the World Cup, especially for the coaches. In Germany, if you fail to reach to semi-finals, you are in trouble. If Joachim Loew brings home the first side to fail to make the quarter finals since
1978, he won't get a new contract. That would be a tragedy for German football, because it is clear that Loew is in the process of building a very good team, which may not reach its full potential until 2014 or even 2018. England's coach Capello has been criticized heavily already, and a loss to Germany will probably seal his fate, equally undeservedly.

This World Cup has shown that very few games are giving clear results, and it is impossible to reliably pick winners, even in games where it should be obvious. In an evenly matched game such as Germany v England, making a prediction is futile. Germany will struggle to replace Schweinsteiger, if reports that he is likely to miss out for injury are confirmed, but may still have the upper hand in the midfield battle. Gerrard and Lampard are bigger names than anyone on the Germany side, but they still don't mesh that well, and neither has played well at this tournament. More worrying for Germany will be that they have struggled to score since the game against Australia, despite creating the chances. To get the better of John Terry, the strikers will need to better than they were against Ghana and Serbia. At the other end Germany have to deal with Rooney. Rooney is good, though not as good as the English press have made him out to be, and he still lacks a consistent partner, so the German defense may feel they can deal with him. But if he pounces into life and discovers his club form, he will be too much for the German defenders to handle.

Knock out games are always cagey affairs, as teams can not avoid being hampered by the fear of conceding. It would not surprise me if this game goes a long time without a goal. If it does look like its heading for penalties, it will be interesting to see the English players react. Germany has a huge reputation for penalties, and England have lost so many games that way. Perhaps they will fear penalties enough to throw caution to the wind and attack - especially because of their 5 penalty takes, 3 already have a damaged record. Lampard and Gerrard missed in 2006 against Portugal, while Terry missed in the Champions League Final in 2008. It should be said of course the that German reputation for penalties is built primarily on performances of previous teams. Some of the current crop converted against Argentina four years ago, but most of them have never faced a World Cup shootout. The current bunch haven't done anything to warrant the reputation that they carry.

My initial feelings about this game were primarily negative ones - from a fans point of view, losing to England seems terrifying, far more so than winning would be marvelous. But it shouldn't be. As I said, it is a shame this game is so early, but these games are what World Cups are all about. England have long termed their current crop as the Golden Generation. In this game they have a chance to finally live up to that burdensome tag and do something England haven't done in 40 years - knock Germany out of a tournament. Germany are at the beginning of a cycle, perhaps starting their own golden generation. Their previous generation was not a great one, but they maintained Germany's fantastic tournament record anyway, reaching the 2002 final and the 2006 semi-finals. That is the pressure the new generation have to stand up to.

One side will write a new chapter in their side's history, the other will be left horribly disappointed. Either the myth of Germany's superiority over England will be confirmed to the stage where even I might start to believe it, or it will finally be dispelled, and the English can start bragging about football rather than war. In either case, I hope it is a high quality game played in good spirit, with a fair outcome.