The cruelest stage

In terms of results, I got 3 out of 4 of the quarterfinals correct, and it would have been a perfect four but for one of the more dramatic finishes in World Cup history in the Uruguay Ghana match. For those who missed it, in the last second of extra time Luis Suarez of Uruguay used both his hands to palm away a goal bound effort that was definitely going in. He is not the goalkeeper. He was instantly sent off, but Ghana missed the resulting penalty an then lost the penalty shoot out.

How to judge Suarez? He acted on instinct, and many players, if not all, might have done the same thing. I don't think the act itself goes down alongside the worst offenders in World Cup history, like Maradona's hand of god goal and Thierry Henry's offense earlier this year. In those cases the offenders conned the referee, and the act went unpunished. Suarez knew instantly he was being sent off, despite the feigned surprise when the ref pointed at him.

Nevertheless, the result left a bad taste in the mouth, and Suarez has made it so much worse by publicly praising himself and defending his actions. If he had kept quiet it would be forgiveable, but to hear him claim that he is the new god (because surely that is the claim you make when you say you have the new hand of god) and to see him being carried around on a victory lap by his team mates, is offensive.

That incident means that, despite Uruguay's underdog status, the Netherlands are surely the sentimental favourites for that semi final. To see Uruguay move on to the World Cup final, and Luis Suarez return from suspension to play in the final, would be galling to all African fans, and reinforce a perception that this World Cup is delivering plenty of drama but not a huge amount of justice.

Fortunately, from a footballing point of view, Netherlands will also be the favourites. Arjen Robben didn't score the goal I predicted in the last match, but his presence, and his theatrical way of falling, so frustrated the Brazilians that they lost their composure and were lucky they finished with only one red card. A pleasing aspect of that game was that it might, temporarily at least, end the nauseating press coverage that Brazil get everywhere they go about playing such beautiful football. The amount of kicking and elbowing they did throughout that game was anything but beautiful.

With Robben again looking to create trouble, and Wesley Sneijder looking like a candidate for the Golden Ball and the Golden Boot, the Netherlands, who must still be shocked to be playing such a modest opponent in the semi final, should prove too strong.

My prediction: Netherlands, 2-1

Now to the one everyone is looking forward to, pitting the tournaments most in form side, Germany, against the team that started the month as almost unbackable favourites. The bookmakers are tipping Spain, barely, just as they tipped Argentina and England. The problem with this Germany side is that they are still largely an unknown quantity, so after each big win, its hard to know how much further they can go. And their victories over England and Argentina were so comprehensive that it becomes natural to question whether those sides were as good as thought, which in turn casts doubt over how good the Germans really are.

On the other hand, how can you bet against a team that has thrashed Argentina 4-0, scored the most goals in the tournament, conceded only 2, has one player chasing the all time World Cup scoring record, and another, in Bastian Schweinsteiger, who must be the favourite for the Golden Ball?

Spain as an opponent may suit Germany. The big wins against Argentina and England (and Australia) were all started by an early goal. Once the opposition was forced to attack in numbers because they needed an equaliser, the Germans are so fast and so precise with their counterattacks that they are almost unstoppable. Against Spain Germany won't need that early goal - the Spanish game plan is always to control possession and attack from the start.

Spain will also think they are playing an opponent that suites them. Everyone from Switzerland to Paraguay has tucked ten men behind the ball and defended dourly in search of a draw or a lucky winner against Spain. Germany won't do that, so the Spanish will at last be able to show their attacking flair.

Germany are playing with some extra motivation. At the last World Cup an entire nation was reduced to tears as Germany lost a truly classic encounter with Italy at the last second. Lahm, Scweinsteiger, Podolski, Mertesacker and Klose will all remember it well, and another semi final loss will be unthinkable to them. Losing a semi final is probably the cruelest way of all to exit the tournament, with a final appearance so near, and the inevitable 'what if' scenarios that will haunt both players and fans for the following four years at least.

As a result, this should be a great game. My heart and my head agree on the result though - I think Germany have done enough to show they can beat anyone, and Spain's opponents have done enough to erase Spain's aura of invincibility.

My prediction: Germany 3-1.