Semi-final heartbreak... again

o the World Cup dream of Germany's young side has come to an end at the semi-final stage, just as it did four years ago.

This time around the loss is less heartbreaking, both because it was not played at home and because, while Puyol's goal came late, it did not come in the excruciating circumstances of Italy's 120th minute winner in 2006.

Watching your side play against Spain is a frustrating experience, because while the score tends to be close (that is Spain's 3rd 1-0 win in this tournament), it still looks as if your team hasn't really turned up. That is Spain's great weapon - they are able to make even the best sides look poor.

The Sydney Morning Herald reports of the game called Germany lacklustre and claim that it was clear the Joachim Loew decided to play a packed defensive game with 9 players behind the ball. That just further highlights that understanding of football is still in short supply at Fairfax - maybe I should apply for a job.

The Spanish hold possession for such a long time that every team ends up looking as if they have set out a defensive game plan, and in truth many sides do just that. But Germany did not want to defend for the whole game - no matter how much attacking intent a side might have, if the opposition hold the ball in their attacking half for periods of up to a minute at a time even the laziest and most offensive minded of midfielders will track back and start to help out the defenders. And that is the essence of the Spanish game plan. By holding the ball in possession for such long periods of time, without ever risking a through ball that would potentially get them a good shot at goal, but also potentially give away possession, they draw the entire opposition back behind the ball, and nullify the threat of a counter attack.

It is an unusual strategy, because it is immensely difficult to execute. The Spanish players are, after all, being chased around the field by 10 superb athletes. Yet they have been able to execute the strategy in game after game. It is not a traditional defensive strategy, such as the Italians or the Greeks like to employ, but it is not the swashbuckling attacking plan that people expected from Spain. It is in fact a very defensive approach, and explains why they have progressed through this tournament with a succession of steady, low scoring wins.

Germany couldn't find a way to get the ball and move it up field quickly enough. They will be devastated that they managed to repel attack after attack from Spain and then conceded to a simple set piece, but when the defenders are working that much in a game, the mistake has to come eventually. Germany also sorely missed Thomas Mueller, one of the few players who might have had the speed and stamina to keep offering a counter attack option without neglecting his defensive duties. A player who has contributed 4 goals and 3 assists is irreplaceable, and so it proved.

While Spain and Holland will fight it out to bestow the other with the undisputed title of best side never to win the World Cup (a title they share at present) Germany is starting to lay down it's own history of major tournament heartbreak. As the only side to make more than one World Cup semi final in the 21st century (Germany have been there all three times) they are still without the big title, and they can add the Euro 2008 final defeat to their list as well.

While that may seem like the mark of a team struggling with the big occasion, a more accurate interpretation is probably that the team has over performed for an entire decade. The 2002 and 2006 teams were average at best, yet made the final and semi final respectively, driven, it seemed, by the sheer will power of players like Oliver Kahn and Michael Ballack. The 2010 side looked superb at times, but before the tournament started no one had heard of half the team. The problem is that by the time you reach the semi final of the World Cup, you run into teams that are both high quality and in form, and the scope to play above yourself starts to narrow considerably.

And, without wanting to make excuses, it was the third consecutive World Cup near miss where Germany's tournament ended in a game with one of their best players of the tournament absent through suspension. In 2002 Ballack missed the final, in 2006 Frings brawled with Argentines and missed the semi, and this year Mueller's absurdly harsh yellow card for hand ball cost him his place.

It is too early to predict anything about 2014, but things look rosy for Germany. The leadership group of this side, in Schweinsteiger, Lahm and Podolski will all still be under 30, but with over 100 caps each to their names, while, if their progress continues at the expected rates Mesut Ozil, Thomas Mueller and Toni Kroos will be established super stars in 2014. Assuming Loew stays (he can just about name his price now, so I am pretty sure he'll stay) this side are very likely to belong to the favorites in four years time. Of course, with Brazil hosting the top favorite slot is probably already taken.

For now the German's still have the third place playoff. Usually a fairly meaningless affair (and therefor often a better game), this time it does present an opportunity for a fairly significant piece of history. Watch the Germans feed everything to Miro Klose in an effort to get him the two goals he needs to become the highest World Cup scorer of all time, and potentially the first player to win the Golden Boot twice, a magnificent achievement for a player that was never blessed with extravagant talent, but seems to grow above himself when he is really needed.

So to the final. Spain will take the same approach. The ability of their midfield to hold the ball also gives them the luxury of dictating how each game will be played. The Netherlands will be underdogs, but they will take hope from two elements of the game. The first is that for all their possession the Spanish still look a little toothless. WIth so much emphasis on passing, the goal is sometimes forgotten, and Holland know they only have to hold out for about 20 minutes longer than Germany managed. Holland also have one thing Germany lacked - several players who can score goals from outside the box. Arjen Robben, Van Persie, Wesley Sneijder and even Gio Van Bronkhurst (did you see that goal?) could just conjure a goal without actually beating the Spanish defense. If they can manage that, their chances are good. Overall though I still have to pick Spain, 1-0.

The final thing that is important to predict at this stage is of course the Golden Ball, awarded to the best player of the tournament. Bastian Schweinsteiger deserves an honorable mention - there were times in the Argentina game I thought more than one player must be wearing the number 7, such was his work rate - but FIFA tradition seems to demand that it be awarded to a player in the final. It will be interesting to see if FIFA persist with their preference for announcing the winner before the final. It has been somewhat of a cursed award in recent years, with Oliver Kahn spilling an easy catch and giving Brazil a goal in the final in 2002, and Zidane celebrating his award by impressing his skull on Marco Materazzi in 2006. My tip would be Wesley Sneijder, for orchestrating everything the Dutch have done in this tournament, though David Villa, for scoring 5 of Spain's 7 goals, has a strong claim too.