Thursday, July 1, 2010

Now the real tournament begins

The boys have been separated from the men, the wheat from the chaff. It is quarter-finals time at the World Cup. While all the losing teams will be bitterly disappointed, only Brazil and Spain will, once the dust settles, consider a quarter final exit a failed world cup. The Germans have done enough to satisfy the home press, while Argentina and Holland, though full of ambition, haven't been past the quarters for a long time. Uruguay, Ghana and Paraguay are already in hero territory back home.

I've said before that any attempt at predictions in this World Cup is futile, but, because I managed to pick all of the quarters, and win a penny in the process, in 2006, I'm going to have a crack at doing it again this year.

Uruguay v Ghana

The sentimental favour surely lies with Africa's only remaining side, the Black Stars of Ghana - named for the star on their flag, not their skin colour, though I'm sure the double meaning is not lost on the side. Ghana dispatched the USA with two very well taken goals, putting to rest questions about their ability to score, after they qualified from the group stage without scoring from open play. Uruguay haven't looked stretched yet, but they came through an easy group, and certainly didn't dominate Korea in the last round. They do have a prolific striker in Luis Suarez, who turned the game against Korea and can do the same in any game.

It's a tight game, but Ghana look the fitter and more determined of the sides, and the will be playing with a virtual home ground advantage. If it comes to penalties, some of the Uruguay squad may well think back to the dramatic events in Sydney in 2005, where they lost a shoot out to Australia to miss out on the Cup all together.

My prediction: Ghana in regular time. 2-1

Netherlands v Brazil

Allegedly the game that pits La Joga Bonito against Total Football, this quarterfinal is the first clash at this World Cup between genuine contenders for the crown. In reality, Brazil haven't played 'the beautiful game' at all this tournament, unless you count Fabiano's best Thierry Henry impression as beautiful, while the Dutch stopped playing Total Football a long time ago. Nevertheless, it promises to be an entertaining game with some players of genuine quality on the field. If you were to look at this years Champions League Final, you would find that the main protagonists were Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder, backed up by Lucio, Maicon and Julio Cesar. On this occasion Sneijder changes sides to join Robben and see if, unlike in the Champions League, he can find a way past the Brazilian defense.

Brazil will start as favourites, as they do in every World Cup game they play. There is a swagger about this side at the moment, and anything less than first place will be considered a failure in Brazil. However the Netherlands have a weapon up their sleeve that Brazil will know all about, but may still not be able to stop.

Every defender in the world knows what Arjen Robben will do when he gets the ball. You will see it in the game tomorrow, at least three times. He picks up the ball on the right wing, runs at the defender, then cuts in field toward the corner of the penalty area, and then unleashes the best left footed shot in the world. His goal against Slovakia in the last round was a text book example. The problem is that knowing it is not the same as preventing it. Robben can run faster than just about any player in the game, and he can do it with the ball at his feet. Defenders don't know how to stop him, because if they block off the way to cut back inside, he can go round them to the base line, where it becomes easy to square the ball for a team mate to tap in.

Brazil look the better balanced of the sides, with an excellent defensive line behind their fabled attack, but I think the Netherlands can nick this one, courtesy of a Robben special.

My prediction: Netherlands, in regular time. 2-1

Germany v Argentina

With five world cups between them, and the history of playing two consecutive World Cup finals against each other, in 1986 and 1990, with one win each, this would have been a huge game anyway. But both camps have added fuel to the fire with their pre game comments.

Bastian Schweinsteiger accused the Argentines of a lack of respect, referring to the Argentines antics before, during and after many games, but in particular the 2006 quarter final. In that game Germany progressed on penalties, and the Argentines reacted by starting a brawl, which had terrible consequences for Germany, as Torsten Frings, one of Germany's most important players in that tournament, allowed himself to be provoked and was suspended for the semi final. Maradona has returned fire by asking, in an attempt at a mock German accent, if the Germans are scared. Maradona had already raised eyebrows when he refused to begin a press conference, after a friendly game against Germany in March, as long as the ball boy was seated at the same table. The ball boy in question was in fact Thomas Mueller, who has scored three goals at this world cup.

Given Argentina's history, Schweinsteiger's was not an unreasonable accusation. Argentina play the game in a very poor spirit. In 1986 Maradona scored the infamous hand of god goal, and had the brazen arrogance to name it that as well. In 1990 they kicked and fouled their way to the final, and Germany were in the unfamiliar position of being the sentimental favourites. In 1998 Diego Simeones appalling play acting saw David Beckham sent off and forced to return home to a storm of unfair condemnation. And then there was the brawl in 2006.

As to the footballing qualities of the sides, they are a long way apart. If Argentina were to go on and win the World Cup, it would be proof that the role of the coach is almost meaningless. In Maradona the Argentines have a parody of a coach, a puerile man who attracts, and enjoys, a circus everywhere he goes. Consider the Thomas Mueller incident - even if it had been a ball boy, what kind of a person would refuse to do a press conference because of the presence of unworthies. To see just how low Maradona has stooped, enjoy this video of a Maradona press conference after Argentina narrowly qualified for this World Cup. It is a shame that such an idiot was gifted with such immense football skills. He may be considered an inspirational figure in his homeland, but he simply hasn't got the brains to be a good coach. He is however blessed with the most talented line up in the tournament.

Germany on the other hand would offer proof that a coach can take a team far beyond the sum of its part by instilling a good system in the team. While Ozil and Mueller are emerging, the team has no true stars in the mould of Messi and Tevez. One thing both sides have in common is an attacking bent and a weakness in defense. Germany will be fitter and faster, Argentina undoubtedly have more skillful players. And in Lionel Messi they have one player that no defense can entirely stop - Germany will have to hope that this is not the game when he gets to his best.

Expect goals a plenty in this affair, but in the end I think the score will be close and the Germans are more likely to hold their nerve when it gets tough.

My prediction: Germany, in extra time, 3-2, or on penalties.

Spain v Paraguay

Little to say here. Spain are warming up, and looking harder and harder to beat. Only Spain have the depth of talent to shrug off the poor form of a player like Fernando Torres. When they get into trouble they can bring players of the quality of Cesc Fabregas off the bench. Paraguay have had an easy run to the quarter finals, and Spain will be much to good for them.

My prediction: Spain, in regular time, 3-0.

No comments:

Post a Comment