The World Cup ended last night, as Spain became the eighth World Champion, and the Netherlands completed a hatrick of final defeats. It was not a vintage game, but that was perhaps predictable - Spain haven't been an entertaining side this tournament, and the Dutch were never likely to decline the chance to make the final a physical contest against their diminutive opponents.
It was a fair result. Spain were deserving winners, not just of the game but of the tournament. They came in with the added challenge of being the red hot favorites for the title. That was enough to undo France in 2002 and Brazil in 2006. Every team knew the Spanish game plan inside out, and every coach had given hours of thought to stopping it. Yet no one could. They have been the best side in the World for several years now, and in South Africa they fulfilled their promise. Congratulations to them.
In the final Spain implemented the same game plan they have throughout the tournament. They passed and passed and passed until eventually the breakthrough came, while the Dutch fell into the same frustrated defensive mode that had condemned Germany. In contrast to the Germany game, the older and more experienced Dutch side brought some cynical tactics to the table. De Jong's kick on Alonso in the first half would be called assault off the field, and probably should have brought a red card, and Van Bommel was his usual snarling self in the midfield.
In a game of 14 yellow cards it is often the referee that gets blamed, but I think Howard Webb did everything right. None of the yellow cards was undeserved, and Webb treated the final with an appropriate sense of occasion in trying to avoid sending anyone off. When the red card came he really had no choice.
Spain seems to be in somewhat of a golden age as far as sport goes - Nadal just won Wimbledon again, Alonso won a couple of Formula 1 titles a few years ago, and now the football team is European and World Champion.
You wouldn't begrudge them the sporting success, because the rest of the country is in such a mess. With over 20% unemployment, the economy in the doldrums, and the country facing a Greek style debt crisis, they needed something to feel good about. Yesterday Andres Iniesta delivered it. I've read suggestions that when Germany won in 1954 it was the kick start to the economic miracle in that country. Maybe it can do the same for Spain.
Spain have been the perennial under achievers of World football. It beggars belief that the same country that produced Real Madrid and FC Barcelona, with 12 European cups between them, had never passed the World Cup quarter final. The rest of Europe will now be wondering whether the sleeping giant has been woken, and a new side will now join Germany, Italy and the Netherlands with a consistent international record.
For the Dutch, there is the bitter sweet feeling of reaching a final and losing it. The heart breaking moment of the final was, for me, when Arjen Robben finally decided to stay on his feet. Through on goal until Carlos Puyol bear hugged him, the man who has been accused of spending his entire tournament rolling around on the floor did everything to stay up and in the process let the Spanish 'keeper beat him to the ball. Had he gone down Puyol would have been sent off and the Dutch would have had either a dangerous free kick or a penalty. It may be to his credit that he stayed up, but he surely wouldn't do it again. Robben and Van Bommel join that elite list to lose the biggest games in both club and international football in the space of a few weeks.
We can ponder briefly the insanity of an event that captures the whole world, only to leave 31 nations bitterly disappointed and send one into ecstasy, but in truth, the end of a World Cup is always a relief. Finally, we can all breath easily again, thoughts can move to non football related matters. And in four years, in Brazil, we'll do it all again. If you've stuck with this blog to the bitter end, thank you for taking the time to read it - I hope you enjoyed it half as much as I enjoyed writing it.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Semi-final heartbreak... again
o the World Cup dream of Germany's young side has come to an end at the semi-final stage, just as it did four years ago.
This time around the loss is less heartbreaking, both because it was not played at home and because, while Puyol's goal came late, it did not come in the excruciating circumstances of Italy's 120th minute winner in 2006.
Watching your side play against Spain is a frustrating experience, because while the score tends to be close (that is Spain's 3rd 1-0 win in this tournament), it still looks as if your team hasn't really turned up. That is Spain's great weapon - they are able to make even the best sides look poor.
The Sydney Morning Herald reports of the game called Germany lacklustre and claim that it was clear the Joachim Loew decided to play a packed defensive game with 9 players behind the ball. That just further highlights that understanding of football is still in short supply at Fairfax - maybe I should apply for a job.
The Spanish hold possession for such a long time that every team ends up looking as if they have set out a defensive game plan, and in truth many sides do just that. But Germany did not want to defend for the whole game - no matter how much attacking intent a side might have, if the opposition hold the ball in their attacking half for periods of up to a minute at a time even the laziest and most offensive minded of midfielders will track back and start to help out the defenders. And that is the essence of the Spanish game plan. By holding the ball in possession for such long periods of time, without ever risking a through ball that would potentially get them a good shot at goal, but also potentially give away possession, they draw the entire opposition back behind the ball, and nullify the threat of a counter attack.
It is an unusual strategy, because it is immensely difficult to execute. The Spanish players are, after all, being chased around the field by 10 superb athletes. Yet they have been able to execute the strategy in game after game. It is not a traditional defensive strategy, such as the Italians or the Greeks like to employ, but it is not the swashbuckling attacking plan that people expected from Spain. It is in fact a very defensive approach, and explains why they have progressed through this tournament with a succession of steady, low scoring wins.
Germany couldn't find a way to get the ball and move it up field quickly enough. They will be devastated that they managed to repel attack after attack from Spain and then conceded to a simple set piece, but when the defenders are working that much in a game, the mistake has to come eventually. Germany also sorely missed Thomas Mueller, one of the few players who might have had the speed and stamina to keep offering a counter attack option without neglecting his defensive duties. A player who has contributed 4 goals and 3 assists is irreplaceable, and so it proved.
While Spain and Holland will fight it out to bestow the other with the undisputed title of best side never to win the World Cup (a title they share at present) Germany is starting to lay down it's own history of major tournament heartbreak. As the only side to make more than one World Cup semi final in the 21st century (Germany have been there all three times) they are still without the big title, and they can add the Euro 2008 final defeat to their list as well.
While that may seem like the mark of a team struggling with the big occasion, a more accurate interpretation is probably that the team has over performed for an entire decade. The 2002 and 2006 teams were average at best, yet made the final and semi final respectively, driven, it seemed, by the sheer will power of players like Oliver Kahn and Michael Ballack. The 2010 side looked superb at times, but before the tournament started no one had heard of half the team. The problem is that by the time you reach the semi final of the World Cup, you run into teams that are both high quality and in form, and the scope to play above yourself starts to narrow considerably.
And, without wanting to make excuses, it was the third consecutive World Cup near miss where Germany's tournament ended in a game with one of their best players of the tournament absent through suspension. In 2002 Ballack missed the final, in 2006 Frings brawled with Argentines and missed the semi, and this year Mueller's absurdly harsh yellow card for hand ball cost him his place.
It is too early to predict anything about 2014, but things look rosy for Germany. The leadership group of this side, in Schweinsteiger, Lahm and Podolski will all still be under 30, but with over 100 caps each to their names, while, if their progress continues at the expected rates Mesut Ozil, Thomas Mueller and Toni Kroos will be established super stars in 2014. Assuming Loew stays (he can just about name his price now, so I am pretty sure he'll stay) this side are very likely to belong to the favorites in four years time. Of course, with Brazil hosting the top favorite slot is probably already taken.
For now the German's still have the third place playoff. Usually a fairly meaningless affair (and therefor often a better game), this time it does present an opportunity for a fairly significant piece of history. Watch the Germans feed everything to Miro Klose in an effort to get him the two goals he needs to become the highest World Cup scorer of all time, and potentially the first player to win the Golden Boot twice, a magnificent achievement for a player that was never blessed with extravagant talent, but seems to grow above himself when he is really needed.
So to the final. Spain will take the same approach. The ability of their midfield to hold the ball also gives them the luxury of dictating how each game will be played. The Netherlands will be underdogs, but they will take hope from two elements of the game. The first is that for all their possession the Spanish still look a little toothless. WIth so much emphasis on passing, the goal is sometimes forgotten, and Holland know they only have to hold out for about 20 minutes longer than Germany managed. Holland also have one thing Germany lacked - several players who can score goals from outside the box. Arjen Robben, Van Persie, Wesley Sneijder and even Gio Van Bronkhurst (did you see that goal?) could just conjure a goal without actually beating the Spanish defense. If they can manage that, their chances are good. Overall though I still have to pick Spain, 1-0.
The final thing that is important to predict at this stage is of course the Golden Ball, awarded to the best player of the tournament. Bastian Schweinsteiger deserves an honorable mention - there were times in the Argentina game I thought more than one player must be wearing the number 7, such was his work rate - but FIFA tradition seems to demand that it be awarded to a player in the final. It will be interesting to see if FIFA persist with their preference for announcing the winner before the final. It has been somewhat of a cursed award in recent years, with Oliver Kahn spilling an easy catch and giving Brazil a goal in the final in 2002, and Zidane celebrating his award by impressing his skull on Marco Materazzi in 2006. My tip would be Wesley Sneijder, for orchestrating everything the Dutch have done in this tournament, though David Villa, for scoring 5 of Spain's 7 goals, has a strong claim too.
This time around the loss is less heartbreaking, both because it was not played at home and because, while Puyol's goal came late, it did not come in the excruciating circumstances of Italy's 120th minute winner in 2006.
Watching your side play against Spain is a frustrating experience, because while the score tends to be close (that is Spain's 3rd 1-0 win in this tournament), it still looks as if your team hasn't really turned up. That is Spain's great weapon - they are able to make even the best sides look poor.
The Sydney Morning Herald reports of the game called Germany lacklustre and claim that it was clear the Joachim Loew decided to play a packed defensive game with 9 players behind the ball. That just further highlights that understanding of football is still in short supply at Fairfax - maybe I should apply for a job.
The Spanish hold possession for such a long time that every team ends up looking as if they have set out a defensive game plan, and in truth many sides do just that. But Germany did not want to defend for the whole game - no matter how much attacking intent a side might have, if the opposition hold the ball in their attacking half for periods of up to a minute at a time even the laziest and most offensive minded of midfielders will track back and start to help out the defenders. And that is the essence of the Spanish game plan. By holding the ball in possession for such long periods of time, without ever risking a through ball that would potentially get them a good shot at goal, but also potentially give away possession, they draw the entire opposition back behind the ball, and nullify the threat of a counter attack.
It is an unusual strategy, because it is immensely difficult to execute. The Spanish players are, after all, being chased around the field by 10 superb athletes. Yet they have been able to execute the strategy in game after game. It is not a traditional defensive strategy, such as the Italians or the Greeks like to employ, but it is not the swashbuckling attacking plan that people expected from Spain. It is in fact a very defensive approach, and explains why they have progressed through this tournament with a succession of steady, low scoring wins.
Germany couldn't find a way to get the ball and move it up field quickly enough. They will be devastated that they managed to repel attack after attack from Spain and then conceded to a simple set piece, but when the defenders are working that much in a game, the mistake has to come eventually. Germany also sorely missed Thomas Mueller, one of the few players who might have had the speed and stamina to keep offering a counter attack option without neglecting his defensive duties. A player who has contributed 4 goals and 3 assists is irreplaceable, and so it proved.
While Spain and Holland will fight it out to bestow the other with the undisputed title of best side never to win the World Cup (a title they share at present) Germany is starting to lay down it's own history of major tournament heartbreak. As the only side to make more than one World Cup semi final in the 21st century (Germany have been there all three times) they are still without the big title, and they can add the Euro 2008 final defeat to their list as well.
While that may seem like the mark of a team struggling with the big occasion, a more accurate interpretation is probably that the team has over performed for an entire decade. The 2002 and 2006 teams were average at best, yet made the final and semi final respectively, driven, it seemed, by the sheer will power of players like Oliver Kahn and Michael Ballack. The 2010 side looked superb at times, but before the tournament started no one had heard of half the team. The problem is that by the time you reach the semi final of the World Cup, you run into teams that are both high quality and in form, and the scope to play above yourself starts to narrow considerably.
And, without wanting to make excuses, it was the third consecutive World Cup near miss where Germany's tournament ended in a game with one of their best players of the tournament absent through suspension. In 2002 Ballack missed the final, in 2006 Frings brawled with Argentines and missed the semi, and this year Mueller's absurdly harsh yellow card for hand ball cost him his place.
It is too early to predict anything about 2014, but things look rosy for Germany. The leadership group of this side, in Schweinsteiger, Lahm and Podolski will all still be under 30, but with over 100 caps each to their names, while, if their progress continues at the expected rates Mesut Ozil, Thomas Mueller and Toni Kroos will be established super stars in 2014. Assuming Loew stays (he can just about name his price now, so I am pretty sure he'll stay) this side are very likely to belong to the favorites in four years time. Of course, with Brazil hosting the top favorite slot is probably already taken.
For now the German's still have the third place playoff. Usually a fairly meaningless affair (and therefor often a better game), this time it does present an opportunity for a fairly significant piece of history. Watch the Germans feed everything to Miro Klose in an effort to get him the two goals he needs to become the highest World Cup scorer of all time, and potentially the first player to win the Golden Boot twice, a magnificent achievement for a player that was never blessed with extravagant talent, but seems to grow above himself when he is really needed.
So to the final. Spain will take the same approach. The ability of their midfield to hold the ball also gives them the luxury of dictating how each game will be played. The Netherlands will be underdogs, but they will take hope from two elements of the game. The first is that for all their possession the Spanish still look a little toothless. WIth so much emphasis on passing, the goal is sometimes forgotten, and Holland know they only have to hold out for about 20 minutes longer than Germany managed. Holland also have one thing Germany lacked - several players who can score goals from outside the box. Arjen Robben, Van Persie, Wesley Sneijder and even Gio Van Bronkhurst (did you see that goal?) could just conjure a goal without actually beating the Spanish defense. If they can manage that, their chances are good. Overall though I still have to pick Spain, 1-0.
The final thing that is important to predict at this stage is of course the Golden Ball, awarded to the best player of the tournament. Bastian Schweinsteiger deserves an honorable mention - there were times in the Argentina game I thought more than one player must be wearing the number 7, such was his work rate - but FIFA tradition seems to demand that it be awarded to a player in the final. It will be interesting to see if FIFA persist with their preference for announcing the winner before the final. It has been somewhat of a cursed award in recent years, with Oliver Kahn spilling an easy catch and giving Brazil a goal in the final in 2002, and Zidane celebrating his award by impressing his skull on Marco Materazzi in 2006. My tip would be Wesley Sneijder, for orchestrating everything the Dutch have done in this tournament, though David Villa, for scoring 5 of Spain's 7 goals, has a strong claim too.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
The cruelest stage
In terms of results, I got 3 out of 4 of the quarterfinals correct, and it would have been a perfect four but for one of the more dramatic finishes in World Cup history in the Uruguay Ghana match. For those who missed it, in the last second of extra time Luis Suarez of Uruguay used both his hands to palm away a goal bound effort that was definitely going in. He is not the goalkeeper. He was instantly sent off, but Ghana missed the resulting penalty an then lost the penalty shoot out.
How to judge Suarez? He acted on instinct, and many players, if not all, might have done the same thing. I don't think the act itself goes down alongside the worst offenders in World Cup history, like Maradona's hand of god goal and Thierry Henry's offense earlier this year. In those cases the offenders conned the referee, and the act went unpunished. Suarez knew instantly he was being sent off, despite the feigned surprise when the ref pointed at him.
Nevertheless, the result left a bad taste in the mouth, and Suarez has made it so much worse by publicly praising himself and defending his actions. If he had kept quiet it would be forgiveable, but to hear him claim that he is the new god (because surely that is the claim you make when you say you have the new hand of god) and to see him being carried around on a victory lap by his team mates, is offensive.
That incident means that, despite Uruguay's underdog status, the Netherlands are surely the sentimental favourites for that semi final. To see Uruguay move on to the World Cup final, and Luis Suarez return from suspension to play in the final, would be galling to all African fans, and reinforce a perception that this World Cup is delivering plenty of drama but not a huge amount of justice.
Fortunately, from a footballing point of view, Netherlands will also be the favourites. Arjen Robben didn't score the goal I predicted in the last match, but his presence, and his theatrical way of falling, so frustrated the Brazilians that they lost their composure and were lucky they finished with only one red card. A pleasing aspect of that game was that it might, temporarily at least, end the nauseating press coverage that Brazil get everywhere they go about playing such beautiful football. The amount of kicking and elbowing they did throughout that game was anything but beautiful.
With Robben again looking to create trouble, and Wesley Sneijder looking like a candidate for the Golden Ball and the Golden Boot, the Netherlands, who must still be shocked to be playing such a modest opponent in the semi final, should prove too strong.
My prediction: Netherlands, 2-1
Now to the one everyone is looking forward to, pitting the tournaments most in form side, Germany, against the team that started the month as almost unbackable favourites. The bookmakers are tipping Spain, barely, just as they tipped Argentina and England. The problem with this Germany side is that they are still largely an unknown quantity, so after each big win, its hard to know how much further they can go. And their victories over England and Argentina were so comprehensive that it becomes natural to question whether those sides were as good as thought, which in turn casts doubt over how good the Germans really are.
On the other hand, how can you bet against a team that has thrashed Argentina 4-0, scored the most goals in the tournament, conceded only 2, has one player chasing the all time World Cup scoring record, and another, in Bastian Schweinsteiger, who must be the favourite for the Golden Ball?
Spain as an opponent may suit Germany. The big wins against Argentina and England (and Australia) were all started by an early goal. Once the opposition was forced to attack in numbers because they needed an equaliser, the Germans are so fast and so precise with their counterattacks that they are almost unstoppable. Against Spain Germany won't need that early goal - the Spanish game plan is always to control possession and attack from the start.
Spain will also think they are playing an opponent that suites them. Everyone from Switzerland to Paraguay has tucked ten men behind the ball and defended dourly in search of a draw or a lucky winner against Spain. Germany won't do that, so the Spanish will at last be able to show their attacking flair.
Germany are playing with some extra motivation. At the last World Cup an entire nation was reduced to tears as Germany lost a truly classic encounter with Italy at the last second. Lahm, Scweinsteiger, Podolski, Mertesacker and Klose will all remember it well, and another semi final loss will be unthinkable to them. Losing a semi final is probably the cruelest way of all to exit the tournament, with a final appearance so near, and the inevitable 'what if' scenarios that will haunt both players and fans for the following four years at least.
As a result, this should be a great game. My heart and my head agree on the result though - I think Germany have done enough to show they can beat anyone, and Spain's opponents have done enough to erase Spain's aura of invincibility.
My prediction: Germany 3-1.
How to judge Suarez? He acted on instinct, and many players, if not all, might have done the same thing. I don't think the act itself goes down alongside the worst offenders in World Cup history, like Maradona's hand of god goal and Thierry Henry's offense earlier this year. In those cases the offenders conned the referee, and the act went unpunished. Suarez knew instantly he was being sent off, despite the feigned surprise when the ref pointed at him.
Nevertheless, the result left a bad taste in the mouth, and Suarez has made it so much worse by publicly praising himself and defending his actions. If he had kept quiet it would be forgiveable, but to hear him claim that he is the new god (because surely that is the claim you make when you say you have the new hand of god) and to see him being carried around on a victory lap by his team mates, is offensive.
That incident means that, despite Uruguay's underdog status, the Netherlands are surely the sentimental favourites for that semi final. To see Uruguay move on to the World Cup final, and Luis Suarez return from suspension to play in the final, would be galling to all African fans, and reinforce a perception that this World Cup is delivering plenty of drama but not a huge amount of justice.
Fortunately, from a footballing point of view, Netherlands will also be the favourites. Arjen Robben didn't score the goal I predicted in the last match, but his presence, and his theatrical way of falling, so frustrated the Brazilians that they lost their composure and were lucky they finished with only one red card. A pleasing aspect of that game was that it might, temporarily at least, end the nauseating press coverage that Brazil get everywhere they go about playing such beautiful football. The amount of kicking and elbowing they did throughout that game was anything but beautiful.
With Robben again looking to create trouble, and Wesley Sneijder looking like a candidate for the Golden Ball and the Golden Boot, the Netherlands, who must still be shocked to be playing such a modest opponent in the semi final, should prove too strong.
My prediction: Netherlands, 2-1
Now to the one everyone is looking forward to, pitting the tournaments most in form side, Germany, against the team that started the month as almost unbackable favourites. The bookmakers are tipping Spain, barely, just as they tipped Argentina and England. The problem with this Germany side is that they are still largely an unknown quantity, so after each big win, its hard to know how much further they can go. And their victories over England and Argentina were so comprehensive that it becomes natural to question whether those sides were as good as thought, which in turn casts doubt over how good the Germans really are.
On the other hand, how can you bet against a team that has thrashed Argentina 4-0, scored the most goals in the tournament, conceded only 2, has one player chasing the all time World Cup scoring record, and another, in Bastian Schweinsteiger, who must be the favourite for the Golden Ball?
Spain as an opponent may suit Germany. The big wins against Argentina and England (and Australia) were all started by an early goal. Once the opposition was forced to attack in numbers because they needed an equaliser, the Germans are so fast and so precise with their counterattacks that they are almost unstoppable. Against Spain Germany won't need that early goal - the Spanish game plan is always to control possession and attack from the start.
Spain will also think they are playing an opponent that suites them. Everyone from Switzerland to Paraguay has tucked ten men behind the ball and defended dourly in search of a draw or a lucky winner against Spain. Germany won't do that, so the Spanish will at last be able to show their attacking flair.
Germany are playing with some extra motivation. At the last World Cup an entire nation was reduced to tears as Germany lost a truly classic encounter with Italy at the last second. Lahm, Scweinsteiger, Podolski, Mertesacker and Klose will all remember it well, and another semi final loss will be unthinkable to them. Losing a semi final is probably the cruelest way of all to exit the tournament, with a final appearance so near, and the inevitable 'what if' scenarios that will haunt both players and fans for the following four years at least.
As a result, this should be a great game. My heart and my head agree on the result though - I think Germany have done enough to show they can beat anyone, and Spain's opponents have done enough to erase Spain's aura of invincibility.
My prediction: Germany 3-1.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Now the real tournament begins
The boys have been separated from the men, the wheat from the chaff. It is quarter-finals time at the World Cup. While all the losing teams will be bitterly disappointed, only Brazil and Spain will, once the dust settles, consider a quarter final exit a failed world cup. The Germans have done enough to satisfy the home press, while Argentina and Holland, though full of ambition, haven't been past the quarters for a long time. Uruguay, Ghana and Paraguay are already in hero territory back home.
I've said before that any attempt at predictions in this World Cup is futile, but, because I managed to pick all of the quarters, and win a penny in the process, in 2006, I'm going to have a crack at doing it again this year.
Uruguay v Ghana
The sentimental favour surely lies with Africa's only remaining side, the Black Stars of Ghana - named for the star on their flag, not their skin colour, though I'm sure the double meaning is not lost on the side. Ghana dispatched the USA with two very well taken goals, putting to rest questions about their ability to score, after they qualified from the group stage without scoring from open play. Uruguay haven't looked stretched yet, but they came through an easy group, and certainly didn't dominate Korea in the last round. They do have a prolific striker in Luis Suarez, who turned the game against Korea and can do the same in any game.
It's a tight game, but Ghana look the fitter and more determined of the sides, and the will be playing with a virtual home ground advantage. If it comes to penalties, some of the Uruguay squad may well think back to the dramatic events in Sydney in 2005, where they lost a shoot out to Australia to miss out on the Cup all together.
My prediction: Ghana in regular time. 2-1
Netherlands v Brazil
Allegedly the game that pits La Joga Bonito against Total Football, this quarterfinal is the first clash at this World Cup between genuine contenders for the crown. In reality, Brazil haven't played 'the beautiful game' at all this tournament, unless you count Fabiano's best Thierry Henry impression as beautiful, while the Dutch stopped playing Total Football a long time ago. Nevertheless, it promises to be an entertaining game with some players of genuine quality on the field. If you were to look at this years Champions League Final, you would find that the main protagonists were Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder, backed up by Lucio, Maicon and Julio Cesar. On this occasion Sneijder changes sides to join Robben and see if, unlike in the Champions League, he can find a way past the Brazilian defense.
Brazil will start as favourites, as they do in every World Cup game they play. There is a swagger about this side at the moment, and anything less than first place will be considered a failure in Brazil. However the Netherlands have a weapon up their sleeve that Brazil will know all about, but may still not be able to stop.
Every defender in the world knows what Arjen Robben will do when he gets the ball. You will see it in the game tomorrow, at least three times. He picks up the ball on the right wing, runs at the defender, then cuts in field toward the corner of the penalty area, and then unleashes the best left footed shot in the world. His goal against Slovakia in the last round was a text book example. The problem is that knowing it is not the same as preventing it. Robben can run faster than just about any player in the game, and he can do it with the ball at his feet. Defenders don't know how to stop him, because if they block off the way to cut back inside, he can go round them to the base line, where it becomes easy to square the ball for a team mate to tap in.
Brazil look the better balanced of the sides, with an excellent defensive line behind their fabled attack, but I think the Netherlands can nick this one, courtesy of a Robben special.
My prediction: Netherlands, in regular time. 2-1
Germany v Argentina
With five world cups between them, and the history of playing two consecutive World Cup finals against each other, in 1986 and 1990, with one win each, this would have been a huge game anyway. But both camps have added fuel to the fire with their pre game comments.
Bastian Schweinsteiger accused the Argentines of a lack of respect, referring to the Argentines antics before, during and after many games, but in particular the 2006 quarter final. In that game Germany progressed on penalties, and the Argentines reacted by starting a brawl, which had terrible consequences for Germany, as Torsten Frings, one of Germany's most important players in that tournament, allowed himself to be provoked and was suspended for the semi final. Maradona has returned fire by asking, in an attempt at a mock German accent, if the Germans are scared. Maradona had already raised eyebrows when he refused to begin a press conference, after a friendly game against Germany in March, as long as the ball boy was seated at the same table. The ball boy in question was in fact Thomas Mueller, who has scored three goals at this world cup.
Given Argentina's history, Schweinsteiger's was not an unreasonable accusation. Argentina play the game in a very poor spirit. In 1986 Maradona scored the infamous hand of god goal, and had the brazen arrogance to name it that as well. In 1990 they kicked and fouled their way to the final, and Germany were in the unfamiliar position of being the sentimental favourites. In 1998 Diego Simeones appalling play acting saw David Beckham sent off and forced to return home to a storm of unfair condemnation. And then there was the brawl in 2006.
As to the footballing qualities of the sides, they are a long way apart. If Argentina were to go on and win the World Cup, it would be proof that the role of the coach is almost meaningless. In Maradona the Argentines have a parody of a coach, a puerile man who attracts, and enjoys, a circus everywhere he goes. Consider the Thomas Mueller incident - even if it had been a ball boy, what kind of a person would refuse to do a press conference because of the presence of unworthies. To see just how low Maradona has stooped, enjoy this video of a Maradona press conference after Argentina narrowly qualified for this World Cup. It is a shame that such an idiot was gifted with such immense football skills. He may be considered an inspirational figure in his homeland, but he simply hasn't got the brains to be a good coach. He is however blessed with the most talented line up in the tournament.
Germany on the other hand would offer proof that a coach can take a team far beyond the sum of its part by instilling a good system in the team. While Ozil and Mueller are emerging, the team has no true stars in the mould of Messi and Tevez. One thing both sides have in common is an attacking bent and a weakness in defense. Germany will be fitter and faster, Argentina undoubtedly have more skillful players. And in Lionel Messi they have one player that no defense can entirely stop - Germany will have to hope that this is not the game when he gets to his best.
Expect goals a plenty in this affair, but in the end I think the score will be close and the Germans are more likely to hold their nerve when it gets tough.
My prediction: Germany, in extra time, 3-2, or on penalties.
Spain v Paraguay
Little to say here. Spain are warming up, and looking harder and harder to beat. Only Spain have the depth of talent to shrug off the poor form of a player like Fernando Torres. When they get into trouble they can bring players of the quality of Cesc Fabregas off the bench. Paraguay have had an easy run to the quarter finals, and Spain will be much to good for them.
My prediction: Spain, in regular time, 3-0.
I've said before that any attempt at predictions in this World Cup is futile, but, because I managed to pick all of the quarters, and win a penny in the process, in 2006, I'm going to have a crack at doing it again this year.
Uruguay v Ghana
The sentimental favour surely lies with Africa's only remaining side, the Black Stars of Ghana - named for the star on their flag, not their skin colour, though I'm sure the double meaning is not lost on the side. Ghana dispatched the USA with two very well taken goals, putting to rest questions about their ability to score, after they qualified from the group stage without scoring from open play. Uruguay haven't looked stretched yet, but they came through an easy group, and certainly didn't dominate Korea in the last round. They do have a prolific striker in Luis Suarez, who turned the game against Korea and can do the same in any game.
It's a tight game, but Ghana look the fitter and more determined of the sides, and the will be playing with a virtual home ground advantage. If it comes to penalties, some of the Uruguay squad may well think back to the dramatic events in Sydney in 2005, where they lost a shoot out to Australia to miss out on the Cup all together.
My prediction: Ghana in regular time. 2-1
Netherlands v Brazil
Allegedly the game that pits La Joga Bonito against Total Football, this quarterfinal is the first clash at this World Cup between genuine contenders for the crown. In reality, Brazil haven't played 'the beautiful game' at all this tournament, unless you count Fabiano's best Thierry Henry impression as beautiful, while the Dutch stopped playing Total Football a long time ago. Nevertheless, it promises to be an entertaining game with some players of genuine quality on the field. If you were to look at this years Champions League Final, you would find that the main protagonists were Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder, backed up by Lucio, Maicon and Julio Cesar. On this occasion Sneijder changes sides to join Robben and see if, unlike in the Champions League, he can find a way past the Brazilian defense.
Brazil will start as favourites, as they do in every World Cup game they play. There is a swagger about this side at the moment, and anything less than first place will be considered a failure in Brazil. However the Netherlands have a weapon up their sleeve that Brazil will know all about, but may still not be able to stop.
Every defender in the world knows what Arjen Robben will do when he gets the ball. You will see it in the game tomorrow, at least three times. He picks up the ball on the right wing, runs at the defender, then cuts in field toward the corner of the penalty area, and then unleashes the best left footed shot in the world. His goal against Slovakia in the last round was a text book example. The problem is that knowing it is not the same as preventing it. Robben can run faster than just about any player in the game, and he can do it with the ball at his feet. Defenders don't know how to stop him, because if they block off the way to cut back inside, he can go round them to the base line, where it becomes easy to square the ball for a team mate to tap in.
Brazil look the better balanced of the sides, with an excellent defensive line behind their fabled attack, but I think the Netherlands can nick this one, courtesy of a Robben special.
My prediction: Netherlands, in regular time. 2-1
Germany v Argentina
With five world cups between them, and the history of playing two consecutive World Cup finals against each other, in 1986 and 1990, with one win each, this would have been a huge game anyway. But both camps have added fuel to the fire with their pre game comments.
Bastian Schweinsteiger accused the Argentines of a lack of respect, referring to the Argentines antics before, during and after many games, but in particular the 2006 quarter final. In that game Germany progressed on penalties, and the Argentines reacted by starting a brawl, which had terrible consequences for Germany, as Torsten Frings, one of Germany's most important players in that tournament, allowed himself to be provoked and was suspended for the semi final. Maradona has returned fire by asking, in an attempt at a mock German accent, if the Germans are scared. Maradona had already raised eyebrows when he refused to begin a press conference, after a friendly game against Germany in March, as long as the ball boy was seated at the same table. The ball boy in question was in fact Thomas Mueller, who has scored three goals at this world cup.
Given Argentina's history, Schweinsteiger's was not an unreasonable accusation. Argentina play the game in a very poor spirit. In 1986 Maradona scored the infamous hand of god goal, and had the brazen arrogance to name it that as well. In 1990 they kicked and fouled their way to the final, and Germany were in the unfamiliar position of being the sentimental favourites. In 1998 Diego Simeones appalling play acting saw David Beckham sent off and forced to return home to a storm of unfair condemnation. And then there was the brawl in 2006.
As to the footballing qualities of the sides, they are a long way apart. If Argentina were to go on and win the World Cup, it would be proof that the role of the coach is almost meaningless. In Maradona the Argentines have a parody of a coach, a puerile man who attracts, and enjoys, a circus everywhere he goes. Consider the Thomas Mueller incident - even if it had been a ball boy, what kind of a person would refuse to do a press conference because of the presence of unworthies. To see just how low Maradona has stooped, enjoy this video of a Maradona press conference after Argentina narrowly qualified for this World Cup. It is a shame that such an idiot was gifted with such immense football skills. He may be considered an inspirational figure in his homeland, but he simply hasn't got the brains to be a good coach. He is however blessed with the most talented line up in the tournament.
Germany on the other hand would offer proof that a coach can take a team far beyond the sum of its part by instilling a good system in the team. While Ozil and Mueller are emerging, the team has no true stars in the mould of Messi and Tevez. One thing both sides have in common is an attacking bent and a weakness in defense. Germany will be fitter and faster, Argentina undoubtedly have more skillful players. And in Lionel Messi they have one player that no defense can entirely stop - Germany will have to hope that this is not the game when he gets to his best.
Expect goals a plenty in this affair, but in the end I think the score will be close and the Germans are more likely to hold their nerve when it gets tough.
My prediction: Germany, in extra time, 3-2, or on penalties.
Spain v Paraguay
Little to say here. Spain are warming up, and looking harder and harder to beat. Only Spain have the depth of talent to shrug off the poor form of a player like Fernando Torres. When they get into trouble they can bring players of the quality of Cesc Fabregas off the bench. Paraguay have had an easy run to the quarter finals, and Spain will be much to good for them.
My prediction: Spain, in regular time, 3-0.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Germany too good, regardless of refereeing blunder
I don't think anyone saw that coming. Before the game I said that predictions were futile at this tournament, and limited myself to what I thought was the safe prediction that it would be a close game. Until the 66th minute it was just that, but England never looked like recovering from Thomas Mueller's quick fire double.
It proved a relief that Mueller scored those two goals, because otherwise we would never hear the end of Lampard's phantom goal. It was miles over the line, and England fans have every right to feel aggreived. We'll never know what would have happened if the second half had started at two all. Capello thinks England would not have had to commit as many forward and would not have conceded so easily at the other hand. On the other hand, they were only one goal down with 25 minutes to play - hardly time to throw all caution to the wind, and the ease with which the German's carved open the English defense suggests they would have found a winner anyway. The disallowed goal was a terrible decision, and a crucial moment in the game, but the far better side won on the day.
FIFA still won't react to this by introducing video replays, which is a shame. Football is the most popular sport in the world, but if it wants to win over remaining sceptics, such as half of Australia and most of the USA, it has to address a perception that referees decide games more often than not and that 'soccer' is more about fluke than skill. Sepp Blatter, the head of FIFA and the sole real decision maker, is against technology being introduced to the game as a matter of principle. Until he retires, there won't be a video replay.
The focus should be on the game though. England will go home into an inquisition as to why players like Rooney, Lampard, Gerrard and Terry, who have played dominant roles in the Champions League in recent years, couldn't produce as a team. It may be heavily disguised, but there is a blessing in disguise here for England. Most of those players, in particular the woeful midfield combo of Lampard and Gerrard, won't be back for another World Cup, and the England side can start to build a team around a functioning centre.
For Germany, questions remain. Italy have built much international success on the idea that once they score, they can absorb any form of attack (not this year, obviously). This German side looks like one that, once it scores, plays so freely that they are almost unstoppable. On two occassions in the tournament Germany have scored in the first 30 minutes, and both times they finished with four goals. Yet the defense still looks questionable. They conceded twice today, and while Lampard non-goal was an excellent strike, the first goal came from woeful defending rather than English excellence. If Argentina are the opponents in the next round, Messi, Millito and Tevez will like the look of the German defense. In fact, Argentina v Germany could be a very high scoring affair, because Argentina's weakness is also in defense, in particular Bayern Munich's own Martin Demichelis, who will face at least 4 of his club team mates.
My sympathy goes out to England fans. They were entitled to expect better from their side, and that frustration will be compounded by the appalling decision to disallow Lampard's goal. But the World Cup moves on, and with other favourites Spain and Brazil not looking impenetrable, the side already in the quarter finals will be daring to dream.
It proved a relief that Mueller scored those two goals, because otherwise we would never hear the end of Lampard's phantom goal. It was miles over the line, and England fans have every right to feel aggreived. We'll never know what would have happened if the second half had started at two all. Capello thinks England would not have had to commit as many forward and would not have conceded so easily at the other hand. On the other hand, they were only one goal down with 25 minutes to play - hardly time to throw all caution to the wind, and the ease with which the German's carved open the English defense suggests they would have found a winner anyway. The disallowed goal was a terrible decision, and a crucial moment in the game, but the far better side won on the day.
FIFA still won't react to this by introducing video replays, which is a shame. Football is the most popular sport in the world, but if it wants to win over remaining sceptics, such as half of Australia and most of the USA, it has to address a perception that referees decide games more often than not and that 'soccer' is more about fluke than skill. Sepp Blatter, the head of FIFA and the sole real decision maker, is against technology being introduced to the game as a matter of principle. Until he retires, there won't be a video replay.
The focus should be on the game though. England will go home into an inquisition as to why players like Rooney, Lampard, Gerrard and Terry, who have played dominant roles in the Champions League in recent years, couldn't produce as a team. It may be heavily disguised, but there is a blessing in disguise here for England. Most of those players, in particular the woeful midfield combo of Lampard and Gerrard, won't be back for another World Cup, and the England side can start to build a team around a functioning centre.
For Germany, questions remain. Italy have built much international success on the idea that once they score, they can absorb any form of attack (not this year, obviously). This German side looks like one that, once it scores, plays so freely that they are almost unstoppable. On two occassions in the tournament Germany have scored in the first 30 minutes, and both times they finished with four goals. Yet the defense still looks questionable. They conceded twice today, and while Lampard non-goal was an excellent strike, the first goal came from woeful defending rather than English excellence. If Argentina are the opponents in the next round, Messi, Millito and Tevez will like the look of the German defense. In fact, Argentina v Germany could be a very high scoring affair, because Argentina's weakness is also in defense, in particular Bayern Munich's own Martin Demichelis, who will face at least 4 of his club team mates.
My sympathy goes out to England fans. They were entitled to expect better from their side, and that frustration will be compounded by the appalling decision to disallow Lampard's goal. But the World Cup moves on, and with other favourites Spain and Brazil not looking impenetrable, the side already in the quarter finals will be daring to dream.
Friday, June 25, 2010
The fairytales and big games to come
For an amateur blogger, this World Cup business moves much to fast. My last post was only days ago, but much has happened since then that deserves comment.
The group stages have wrapped up, with some upsets in major countries going out, and some minnows beginning to put up their hands for the fairytale of 2010 title.
For some, especially those south of the equator, the fairytale title has already been won by New Zealand. New Zealand came in to this game as the most unknown side, other than perhaps North Korea, in the tournament. There were reports that some of their opponents were struggling to find video footage of the New Zealand players, because a number of them play in leagues that are not regularly broadcast on television. In the era of mega rich professionals the term amateur is often used as a slur, but for New Zealand, which actually did field some amateur players, it was a badge of honour.
The match between Italy and New Zealand was, on paper, the biggest mismatch the World Cup has seen for a long time. Italy were the World Champions, while New Zealand had players who needed day jobs. A fourth or fifth division side in Italy would expect to beat such a team. Yet New Zealand held on, not just against Italy but against the other sides in the group too. They should be particularly proud of the fact that, while Italy certainly weren't at their best, they weren't terrible either. It was a good New Zealand performance, rather than a poor one from Italy, that earned this result. In the end they didn't lose a single game.
Not only that, but it is worth a quick thought about what might have been. Against Slovakia, New Zealand conceded a goal that was offside, while against Italy it was a contentious penalty decision. If not for those two moments, the Kiwi defense would not have conceded yet, and they would be readying for a second round knock out game. A fantastic achievement.
Apart from that, the big story of the group stages is the struggle of the European teams. Italy and France are out, England, Germany and Spain had to win on the last day to get through. This has shades of the 2002 tournament which was held in Japan and Korea, where all the major European powers bar Germany fell at the quarter finals or earlier - and this is no coincidence. No European side has won a World Cup outside of Europe, and the fact is that European sides have benefited immensely from the home ground advantage of having most world cups played in Europe.
The second round matches provide some huge match ups, and some less impressive ones. Fans of good football will be heading straight to the Spain v Portugal game. Spain will go in as favourites, and in my opinion they remain the firm favourites for the tournament, especially now that they have avoided a second round clash with Brazil. Portugal still depend too much on Cristiano Ronaldo - he couldn't force a win for Real Madrid (or Manchester United) over Barcelona, and he'll be facing much the same opposition against Spain, in Pique, Puyol, Xavi and Iniesta.
Ghana will be staking their claim to knock New Zealand off the fairytale pedestal. As the only African nation left in Africa's cup, they are carrying the hopes of a continent - and the draw has opened up nicely for them. It is already a certainty that this World Cup will have an unlikely semi-finalist. One of Ghana, USA, Korea and Uruguay will be in the semi-final. A much more inviting quarter of the draw than the one that contains Germany, England, Argentina and Mexico. No African side has made the semi final, and to be honest, Ghana still look like outsiders. While the qualified from a tough group, they still haven't scored from open play. Nevertheless, they will have huge support, as the South African fans have shown they will throw their support behind any African side. They are young, fit and not without skills. It would certainly make for a memorable world cup if Ghana do make a run.
Those with a penchant for games with history will of course turn to England v Germany. To sum up the history, in 1966 England won the final against Germany, courtesy of a goal which remains contentious for the doubt as to whether the ball ever crossed the line. In 1970, Germany got some revenge by knocking England out. In 1990 they met in the semi-final. While Paul Gascoine cried, the Germans held their nerve to win on penalties and go on to lift the trophy. In 1996 the two met in England in the semi-final of the European championship. England had been alive with dreams of 'Football coming home' the theme song of the tournament, but again Germany triumphed, also on penalties. Since then England have recorded a famous win, thrashing a very poor German side 5-1 in a qualifying game in Munich in 2001 - ultimately though both sides qualified for the subsequent World Cup, where England fell in the quarter finals and Germany finished as runners up.
England will be kicking themselves, and Germany will be eager to kick them too, for even letting it come to this. If England had done what was expected of them and won their group, they would be facing Ghana, and then need to beat either Uruguay or Korea to get to the semi-final, a stage they have only reached twice in their history. Instead, they now have to beat first Germany and then, probably, Argentina, to get there.
It is a shame that such a big game is being played so early in the World Cup, especially for the coaches. In Germany, if you fail to reach to semi-finals, you are in trouble. If Joachim Loew brings home the first side to fail to make the quarter finals since
1978, he won't get a new contract. That would be a tragedy for German football, because it is clear that Loew is in the process of building a very good team, which may not reach its full potential until 2014 or even 2018. England's coach Capello has been criticized heavily already, and a loss to Germany will probably seal his fate, equally undeservedly.
This World Cup has shown that very few games are giving clear results, and it is impossible to reliably pick winners, even in games where it should be obvious. In an evenly matched game such as Germany v England, making a prediction is futile. Germany will struggle to replace Schweinsteiger, if reports that he is likely to miss out for injury are confirmed, but may still have the upper hand in the midfield battle. Gerrard and Lampard are bigger names than anyone on the Germany side, but they still don't mesh that well, and neither has played well at this tournament. More worrying for Germany will be that they have struggled to score since the game against Australia, despite creating the chances. To get the better of John Terry, the strikers will need to better than they were against Ghana and Serbia. At the other end Germany have to deal with Rooney. Rooney is good, though not as good as the English press have made him out to be, and he still lacks a consistent partner, so the German defense may feel they can deal with him. But if he pounces into life and discovers his club form, he will be too much for the German defenders to handle.
Knock out games are always cagey affairs, as teams can not avoid being hampered by the fear of conceding. It would not surprise me if this game goes a long time without a goal. If it does look like its heading for penalties, it will be interesting to see the English players react. Germany has a huge reputation for penalties, and England have lost so many games that way. Perhaps they will fear penalties enough to throw caution to the wind and attack - especially because of their 5 penalty takes, 3 already have a damaged record. Lampard and Gerrard missed in 2006 against Portugal, while Terry missed in the Champions League Final in 2008. It should be said of course the that German reputation for penalties is built primarily on performances of previous teams. Some of the current crop converted against Argentina four years ago, but most of them have never faced a World Cup shootout. The current bunch haven't done anything to warrant the reputation that they carry.
My initial feelings about this game were primarily negative ones - from a fans point of view, losing to England seems terrifying, far more so than winning would be marvelous. But it shouldn't be. As I said, it is a shame this game is so early, but these games are what World Cups are all about. England have long termed their current crop as the Golden Generation. In this game they have a chance to finally live up to that burdensome tag and do something England haven't done in 40 years - knock Germany out of a tournament. Germany are at the beginning of a cycle, perhaps starting their own golden generation. Their previous generation was not a great one, but they maintained Germany's fantastic tournament record anyway, reaching the 2002 final and the 2006 semi-finals. That is the pressure the new generation have to stand up to.
One side will write a new chapter in their side's history, the other will be left horribly disappointed. Either the myth of Germany's superiority over England will be confirmed to the stage where even I might start to believe it, or it will finally be dispelled, and the English can start bragging about football rather than war. In either case, I hope it is a high quality game played in good spirit, with a fair outcome.
The group stages have wrapped up, with some upsets in major countries going out, and some minnows beginning to put up their hands for the fairytale of 2010 title.
For some, especially those south of the equator, the fairytale title has already been won by New Zealand. New Zealand came in to this game as the most unknown side, other than perhaps North Korea, in the tournament. There were reports that some of their opponents were struggling to find video footage of the New Zealand players, because a number of them play in leagues that are not regularly broadcast on television. In the era of mega rich professionals the term amateur is often used as a slur, but for New Zealand, which actually did field some amateur players, it was a badge of honour.
The match between Italy and New Zealand was, on paper, the biggest mismatch the World Cup has seen for a long time. Italy were the World Champions, while New Zealand had players who needed day jobs. A fourth or fifth division side in Italy would expect to beat such a team. Yet New Zealand held on, not just against Italy but against the other sides in the group too. They should be particularly proud of the fact that, while Italy certainly weren't at their best, they weren't terrible either. It was a good New Zealand performance, rather than a poor one from Italy, that earned this result. In the end they didn't lose a single game.
Not only that, but it is worth a quick thought about what might have been. Against Slovakia, New Zealand conceded a goal that was offside, while against Italy it was a contentious penalty decision. If not for those two moments, the Kiwi defense would not have conceded yet, and they would be readying for a second round knock out game. A fantastic achievement.
Apart from that, the big story of the group stages is the struggle of the European teams. Italy and France are out, England, Germany and Spain had to win on the last day to get through. This has shades of the 2002 tournament which was held in Japan and Korea, where all the major European powers bar Germany fell at the quarter finals or earlier - and this is no coincidence. No European side has won a World Cup outside of Europe, and the fact is that European sides have benefited immensely from the home ground advantage of having most world cups played in Europe.
The second round matches provide some huge match ups, and some less impressive ones. Fans of good football will be heading straight to the Spain v Portugal game. Spain will go in as favourites, and in my opinion they remain the firm favourites for the tournament, especially now that they have avoided a second round clash with Brazil. Portugal still depend too much on Cristiano Ronaldo - he couldn't force a win for Real Madrid (or Manchester United) over Barcelona, and he'll be facing much the same opposition against Spain, in Pique, Puyol, Xavi and Iniesta.
Ghana will be staking their claim to knock New Zealand off the fairytale pedestal. As the only African nation left in Africa's cup, they are carrying the hopes of a continent - and the draw has opened up nicely for them. It is already a certainty that this World Cup will have an unlikely semi-finalist. One of Ghana, USA, Korea and Uruguay will be in the semi-final. A much more inviting quarter of the draw than the one that contains Germany, England, Argentina and Mexico. No African side has made the semi final, and to be honest, Ghana still look like outsiders. While the qualified from a tough group, they still haven't scored from open play. Nevertheless, they will have huge support, as the South African fans have shown they will throw their support behind any African side. They are young, fit and not without skills. It would certainly make for a memorable world cup if Ghana do make a run.
Those with a penchant for games with history will of course turn to England v Germany. To sum up the history, in 1966 England won the final against Germany, courtesy of a goal which remains contentious for the doubt as to whether the ball ever crossed the line. In 1970, Germany got some revenge by knocking England out. In 1990 they met in the semi-final. While Paul Gascoine cried, the Germans held their nerve to win on penalties and go on to lift the trophy. In 1996 the two met in England in the semi-final of the European championship. England had been alive with dreams of 'Football coming home' the theme song of the tournament, but again Germany triumphed, also on penalties. Since then England have recorded a famous win, thrashing a very poor German side 5-1 in a qualifying game in Munich in 2001 - ultimately though both sides qualified for the subsequent World Cup, where England fell in the quarter finals and Germany finished as runners up.
England will be kicking themselves, and Germany will be eager to kick them too, for even letting it come to this. If England had done what was expected of them and won their group, they would be facing Ghana, and then need to beat either Uruguay or Korea to get to the semi-final, a stage they have only reached twice in their history. Instead, they now have to beat first Germany and then, probably, Argentina, to get there.
It is a shame that such a big game is being played so early in the World Cup, especially for the coaches. In Germany, if you fail to reach to semi-finals, you are in trouble. If Joachim Loew brings home the first side to fail to make the quarter finals since
1978, he won't get a new contract. That would be a tragedy for German football, because it is clear that Loew is in the process of building a very good team, which may not reach its full potential until 2014 or even 2018. England's coach Capello has been criticized heavily already, and a loss to Germany will probably seal his fate, equally undeservedly.
This World Cup has shown that very few games are giving clear results, and it is impossible to reliably pick winners, even in games where it should be obvious. In an evenly matched game such as Germany v England, making a prediction is futile. Germany will struggle to replace Schweinsteiger, if reports that he is likely to miss out for injury are confirmed, but may still have the upper hand in the midfield battle. Gerrard and Lampard are bigger names than anyone on the Germany side, but they still don't mesh that well, and neither has played well at this tournament. More worrying for Germany will be that they have struggled to score since the game against Australia, despite creating the chances. To get the better of John Terry, the strikers will need to better than they were against Ghana and Serbia. At the other end Germany have to deal with Rooney. Rooney is good, though not as good as the English press have made him out to be, and he still lacks a consistent partner, so the German defense may feel they can deal with him. But if he pounces into life and discovers his club form, he will be too much for the German defenders to handle.
Knock out games are always cagey affairs, as teams can not avoid being hampered by the fear of conceding. It would not surprise me if this game goes a long time without a goal. If it does look like its heading for penalties, it will be interesting to see the English players react. Germany has a huge reputation for penalties, and England have lost so many games that way. Perhaps they will fear penalties enough to throw caution to the wind and attack - especially because of their 5 penalty takes, 3 already have a damaged record. Lampard and Gerrard missed in 2006 against Portugal, while Terry missed in the Champions League Final in 2008. It should be said of course the that German reputation for penalties is built primarily on performances of previous teams. Some of the current crop converted against Argentina four years ago, but most of them have never faced a World Cup shootout. The current bunch haven't done anything to warrant the reputation that they carry.
My initial feelings about this game were primarily negative ones - from a fans point of view, losing to England seems terrifying, far more so than winning would be marvelous. But it shouldn't be. As I said, it is a shame this game is so early, but these games are what World Cups are all about. England have long termed their current crop as the Golden Generation. In this game they have a chance to finally live up to that burdensome tag and do something England haven't done in 40 years - knock Germany out of a tournament. Germany are at the beginning of a cycle, perhaps starting their own golden generation. Their previous generation was not a great one, but they maintained Germany's fantastic tournament record anyway, reaching the 2002 final and the 2006 semi-finals. That is the pressure the new generation have to stand up to.
One side will write a new chapter in their side's history, the other will be left horribly disappointed. Either the myth of Germany's superiority over England will be confirmed to the stage where even I might start to believe it, or it will finally be dispelled, and the English can start bragging about football rather than war. In either case, I hope it is a high quality game played in good spirit, with a fair outcome.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Sacre Bleu! The French joke
Every World Cup needs a fairytale, and some farce. This morning the game between France and South Africa nearly provided both. Sadly the fairytale of South Africa qualifying for the next round didn't quite get over the line, with Bafana Bafana, as the SA team is called, falling short on goal difference.
The French however, have provided plenty of farce. It is difficult to find words strong enough to sufficiently condemn the French side, without slipping into language that Nicolas Anelka himself would be proud of. The French press will vent an astounding amount of anger on the players, the coach and football association over the coming weeks, and rightly so.
Throughout the world, but in particular in Europe, executive pay and banking bonuses have been under intense scrutiny for years now. Yet footballers earn salaries thought would make investment bankers blush, and on the whole this is tolerated. The reason they do not incite the rage that executives do probably has a lot to do with the fact that every four years nations send out their footballers and expect them to do the country proud. Winning isn't required, but competing with honour and dignity is expected.
Particularly in the honour category, footballers may sometimes fall short, but no team has ever been as great a source of embarrassment as the French national side of 2010. Before the tournament even began they were under a cloud, after they secured their qualification through a blatant act of cheating. In that fateful playoff game against the Irish, deep into extra time Thierry Henry saw a ball flying past him and out of the field for an Irish goal kick. Instead of letting it go he stuck his hand out and slapped the ball down, not once, which may have been instinct, but twice, which was definitely a conscious act. Once he had the ball down it was easy to square it past a stunned Irish defence to a surprised team mate who tapped the ball into the goal.
Henry later claimed he went straight to the Irish players and apologised, but the television footage told a different story, showing him gleefully celebrating with his team mates.
Having stolen Ireland's place at the World Cup, the least they could have done is put the spot to good use. Instead they shamed themselves further before the tournament even began. It was revealed that several members of the team were under police investigation for their use of under age prostitutes while on national team duty. Converted Muslim and married man Frank Ribery - who wrangled a pay rise out of his club, Bayern Munich, by insisting his wife wanted to move to warmer climes in Spain - defended his actions by saying he didn't know they were underage.
Having arrived at the tournament under this level of scrutiny, some nerves may have been forgivable, as they displayed in their opening game. But the tepid defeat in their second group match revealed deeper problems. At half time, it was reported, Nicolas Anelka told the coach 'Go Fuck yourself, you son of a whore'. Two things I can't help but mention here.
Ironically, it was the son of a whore comment, allegedly, that so enraged Zinedine Zidane that he headbutted Marco Matterazzi during the last World Cup. Why must these footballers always go for women, and mothers to boot? Raymond Domenech is an idiot, but I don't know what his mother had to do with anything.
Secondly, Anelka's comment did give rise to the best bit of coverage of the tournament I have seen on American television. They are very uptight about swear words on television in America - even late at night any swear word in a movie is beeped out or voiced over. At about 11am, ESPN interviewed a french reported about trouble in the French camp and asked him what had happened - live on air. He responded
'well, Nicola Anelka, ee was un'appy with the coach, when ee asked im to play more deep, and ee said Go to fuck yourself you son of a whore.'
Cue pale faces, followed by profuse apologies from the ESPN broadcasters. Juergen Klinsmann, one of the host panel, was kept out of screen, but you could hear him giggling in the background.
Back to the french though. After that outburst, Anelka was sent home. Then, the team, in protest over this decision, refused to train on the day before their last game. The fitness coach walked out, and another official resigned in disgust, over the protest, rather than the sacking. So instead of focusing on their last game, which they needed to win by several goals to have a chance of going through, the French players descended into bickering and farce.
Inevitably, they tamely surrendered to South Africa, losing 2-1 this morning. A side containing players from Manchester United, Chelsea, Bayern Munch, Real Madrid, Barcelona and Arsenal left the World Cup with two losses and one draw, and one single goal. What a joke. This will have repercussions for French football for a generation. Football fans are like all other people, and they will not like being treated with such contempt by their own side. How must those fans who forked out thousands of euros to fly to South Africa and follow their team feel? Its not that they lost, they didn't even try. If the German side behaved like this I would have to find a new sport to follow. It would hardly be a surprise if at the next game of Les Bleus they found themselves in an empty stadium.
Fortunately, a new coach is coming in. He will have little choice but to drop the entire squad, at least for a while. New Zealand have shown at this world cup that a second string side of lower quality players with heart and pride is still immensely preferable to selecting a bunch of talented millionaires who, apparently, just don't care.
Tomorrow sees Groups C and D reach their conclusion, and could see the first major upsets of the tournament. Both England and Germany need to win to ensure they reach the second round. England have looked very bad in their first two games, but should surely find the spark they need to beat Slovenia. Germany have looked decent, despite the loss to Serbia, but face a tougher test in the form of Ghana. If both make it through, there is a high chance that the two will meet each other in the next round. This will cause an uproar in England, where the usual tedious chants of 'two world wars and one world cup' will start again (question for English supporters - would you prefer no world wars but three world cups? be honest). In Germany the response will be more restrained. Everyone loves a win in the World Cup, but the Germans get far more excited about games against Holland. Probably because Germany have lost important games to Holland here and there, while they haven't lost to England at a tournament since the 1966 final.
If you want to read about Germany rivalry with Holland and England, here is a great article by a guy called Uli Hesse - the best English language (but clearly German origin) sports writer I know of.
The French however, have provided plenty of farce. It is difficult to find words strong enough to sufficiently condemn the French side, without slipping into language that Nicolas Anelka himself would be proud of. The French press will vent an astounding amount of anger on the players, the coach and football association over the coming weeks, and rightly so.
Throughout the world, but in particular in Europe, executive pay and banking bonuses have been under intense scrutiny for years now. Yet footballers earn salaries thought would make investment bankers blush, and on the whole this is tolerated. The reason they do not incite the rage that executives do probably has a lot to do with the fact that every four years nations send out their footballers and expect them to do the country proud. Winning isn't required, but competing with honour and dignity is expected.
Particularly in the honour category, footballers may sometimes fall short, but no team has ever been as great a source of embarrassment as the French national side of 2010. Before the tournament even began they were under a cloud, after they secured their qualification through a blatant act of cheating. In that fateful playoff game against the Irish, deep into extra time Thierry Henry saw a ball flying past him and out of the field for an Irish goal kick. Instead of letting it go he stuck his hand out and slapped the ball down, not once, which may have been instinct, but twice, which was definitely a conscious act. Once he had the ball down it was easy to square it past a stunned Irish defence to a surprised team mate who tapped the ball into the goal.
Henry later claimed he went straight to the Irish players and apologised, but the television footage told a different story, showing him gleefully celebrating with his team mates.
Having stolen Ireland's place at the World Cup, the least they could have done is put the spot to good use. Instead they shamed themselves further before the tournament even began. It was revealed that several members of the team were under police investigation for their use of under age prostitutes while on national team duty. Converted Muslim and married man Frank Ribery - who wrangled a pay rise out of his club, Bayern Munich, by insisting his wife wanted to move to warmer climes in Spain - defended his actions by saying he didn't know they were underage.
Having arrived at the tournament under this level of scrutiny, some nerves may have been forgivable, as they displayed in their opening game. But the tepid defeat in their second group match revealed deeper problems. At half time, it was reported, Nicolas Anelka told the coach 'Go Fuck yourself, you son of a whore'. Two things I can't help but mention here.
Ironically, it was the son of a whore comment, allegedly, that so enraged Zinedine Zidane that he headbutted Marco Matterazzi during the last World Cup. Why must these footballers always go for women, and mothers to boot? Raymond Domenech is an idiot, but I don't know what his mother had to do with anything.
Secondly, Anelka's comment did give rise to the best bit of coverage of the tournament I have seen on American television. They are very uptight about swear words on television in America - even late at night any swear word in a movie is beeped out or voiced over. At about 11am, ESPN interviewed a french reported about trouble in the French camp and asked him what had happened - live on air. He responded
'well, Nicola Anelka, ee was un'appy with the coach, when ee asked im to play more deep, and ee said Go to fuck yourself you son of a whore.'
Cue pale faces, followed by profuse apologies from the ESPN broadcasters. Juergen Klinsmann, one of the host panel, was kept out of screen, but you could hear him giggling in the background.
Back to the french though. After that outburst, Anelka was sent home. Then, the team, in protest over this decision, refused to train on the day before their last game. The fitness coach walked out, and another official resigned in disgust, over the protest, rather than the sacking. So instead of focusing on their last game, which they needed to win by several goals to have a chance of going through, the French players descended into bickering and farce.
Inevitably, they tamely surrendered to South Africa, losing 2-1 this morning. A side containing players from Manchester United, Chelsea, Bayern Munch, Real Madrid, Barcelona and Arsenal left the World Cup with two losses and one draw, and one single goal. What a joke. This will have repercussions for French football for a generation. Football fans are like all other people, and they will not like being treated with such contempt by their own side. How must those fans who forked out thousands of euros to fly to South Africa and follow their team feel? Its not that they lost, they didn't even try. If the German side behaved like this I would have to find a new sport to follow. It would hardly be a surprise if at the next game of Les Bleus they found themselves in an empty stadium.
Fortunately, a new coach is coming in. He will have little choice but to drop the entire squad, at least for a while. New Zealand have shown at this world cup that a second string side of lower quality players with heart and pride is still immensely preferable to selecting a bunch of talented millionaires who, apparently, just don't care.
Tomorrow sees Groups C and D reach their conclusion, and could see the first major upsets of the tournament. Both England and Germany need to win to ensure they reach the second round. England have looked very bad in their first two games, but should surely find the spark they need to beat Slovenia. Germany have looked decent, despite the loss to Serbia, but face a tougher test in the form of Ghana. If both make it through, there is a high chance that the two will meet each other in the next round. This will cause an uproar in England, where the usual tedious chants of 'two world wars and one world cup' will start again (question for English supporters - would you prefer no world wars but three world cups? be honest). In Germany the response will be more restrained. Everyone loves a win in the World Cup, but the Germans get far more excited about games against Holland. Probably because Germany have lost important games to Holland here and there, while they haven't lost to England at a tournament since the 1966 final.
If you want to read about Germany rivalry with Holland and England, here is a great article by a guy called Uli Hesse - the best English language (but clearly German origin) sports writer I know of.
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